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3rd quarter GDP; September’s income and outlays, durable goods, & new home sales

Major economic reports that were released last week included the 1st estimate of 3rd quarter GDP and the September report on Personal Income and Spending , both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; other widely watched reports released during the week included the Advance report on durable goods for September and the September report on new home sales , both from the Census bureau, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August from S&P Case-Shiller, an index generated by averaging repeat home sales prices from June, July and August against sales prices of a January 2000 baseline, and which reported that their unadjusted national home price index for those 3 months averaged 0.2% lower than their index generated from May, June and July home sales prices, but still 2.1% higher than their price index generated by repeat home sales prices during the June, July and August period of a year earlier… The week also saw the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for...
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September’s housing starts and building permits

It appears that the only widely watched report that was released last week was the September report on New Residential Construction from the Census Bureau…. Housing Starts Reportedly Lower in September, Building Permits Little Changed The September report on New Residential Construction (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that their widely watched estimate of new housing units that were started during the month was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000, which was 5.2 percent (±11.8 percent)* below the revised August estimated annual rate of 1,288,000 housing unit starts, and was 7.4 percent (±11.5 percent)* below last September’s pace of 1,319,000 housing starts a year…the asterisks indicate that the Census Bureau does not have sufficient data to determine whether housing starts actually rose or fell over the past month, or even over the past year, with the figure in parenthesis the most likely range of the change indicated; in other words, September’s housing starts co...
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September’s consumer & producer prices, retail sales, industrial production, and existing home sales; August’s business inventories

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Widely watched reports that were released last week included the September Consumer Price Index , the September Producer Price Index , and the September Import and Export Price Indexes , all from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Retail Sales report for September and the corresponding Business Sales and Inventories report for August , both from the Census Bureau, the report on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for September from the Fed, and the Existing Home Sales Report for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)…. In addition, this week also saw the release of the first two regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October: the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October from the New York Fed, which covers New York, northern New Jersey, and an adjacent county in Connecticut, reported their headline general business conditions index rose from +7.6 in September to +25.5 in October, the highest in almost five years, meaning that a significant majorit...
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August’s trade deficit and wholesale inventories

The only major agency reports released this week were the August report on our International Trade from the Commerce Dept, and the August report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories from the Census Bureau… Major privately issued reports released during the week included the September Services Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which reported that their Services PMI fell to 54.9% in September, down from 55.4% in August, which would indicate that a smaller plurality of service sector purchasing managers continued to report improving metrics for the key facets of their business in September, and the Mortgage Monitor for October , which now comes from the Mortgage Technology unit of ICE, and which indicated that 3.53% of all mortgages were delinquent in August, up from the 3.39% of mortgages that were delinquent in July, and up from the 3.43% delinquency rate of August 2025, and that 0.54% of all mortgages were in the foreclosure process in August, u...
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