April’s consumer and producer prices, retail sales, industrial production, & existing home sales; March business inventories

Regular monthly reports that were released last week included the April Consumer Price Index, the April Producer Price Index and the April Import-Export Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Retail Sales report for April and the Manufacturing and Trade, Inventories and Sales report for March (pdf), both from the Census Bureau, the April report on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization from the Fed, and the Existing Home Sales Report for April from the National Association of Realtors….

This week also saw the first regional Fed manufacturing survey for May: the Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed, which covers all of New York state, a NYC suburban county in Connecticut, northern New Jersey, and Puerto Rico, reported their headline general business conditions index rose to +19.6 in May from +11.0 in April, its highest level in more than four years, which would indicate that a solid majority of Second District manufacturers now see improvement in the various facets of their business that they were polled on…

CPI Rose 0.6% in April on Higher Food, Shelter, Clothing, and Fuel Prices

The consumer price index was 0.6% higher in April, as higher prices for fuel, housing, groceries, clothing, electricity, airline fares, lodging away from home, vehicle maintenance and servicing, doctor’s services, computers and software, smartphones, TV & video services, toys, and tax preparation, were only partly offset by lower prices for new cars and trucks, car and truck rentals, furniture and appliances, floor coverings, nonprescription drugs, hospital services, health insurance, internet service, pets and pet supplies, and admissions to sporting events ….the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the weighted average of seasonally adjusted prices for consumer goods and services was 0.6% higher in April , after being 0.9% higher in March, 0.3% higher in February, 0.2% higher in January, 0.3% higher in December, after being 0.2% higher the two months ending in November, 0.3% higher in September, 0.3% higher in August, 0.2% higher in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.1% higher last May, and 0.2% higher in April of last year…. The unadjusted CPI-U index, which was originally set to have prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 330.213 in March to 333.020 in April, which left it 3.810845% higher than the index reading of 320.795 from April of last year, which is reported as a 3.8% year over year increase, up from the 3.3% year over year increase that was reported for March, with that widely cited year over year change simply reflecting the effect of last April’s +0.2% increase dropping out of the comparison and being replaced by the current month’s +0.6%, and not telling us anything more about inflation beyond that….with higher prices for food and much higher prices for energy recorded this month, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude both food and energy, were up by 0.4% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 333.242 in February to 334.391 March to 335.803 in April, which left the core index 2.75018% ahead of its year ago reading of 326.815, which is reported as a 2.8% year over year increase, up from the 2.6% year over year core price increase that was reported for February, but well below the 6.6% annual increase reported for September 2022, which had been the largest annual increase in core prices in forty years…

The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index was 3.8% higher in April, after being  10.9% higher in March, 0.6% higher in February, 1.5% lower in January, 0.3% higher in December, 1.1% higher in November, 1.5% higher in September, 0.7% higher in August, 1.1% lower in July, 0.9% higher in June, 1.0% lower last May, and 0.7% higher last April, and is now 17.9% higher than in April of a year ago….the price index for energy commodities was 5.6% higher in April, on a 5.4% increase in the price index for gasoline and a 5.8% increase in the price index for fuel oil, while the price index for “other energy commodities”, including propane, kerosene, and firewood, averaged out to 1.7% higher ….meanwhile, the price index for energy services was 1.6% higher, after rising 0.4% in March, even as the price index for utility gas service was 0.1% lower in April, but is still 3.0% higher than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index was 2.1% higher, after rising 0.8% in March…. energy commodities are now averaging 29.2% above their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 28.4% higher than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is now up 5.4% from last April, as electricity prices are now averaging 6.0% higher than a year ago…

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted food price index was 0.5% higher in April, after being unchanged in March, 0.4% higher in February, 0.2% higher in January, 0.7% higher in December, 0.1% higher over the two months ending November, and after being 0.2% higher in September, 0.4% higher in August, unchanged in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.3% higher last May, and unchanged last April, and is now 3.2% higher than a year ago….the price index for food purchased for use at home was 0.7% higher in April, while the price index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.2% higher, as average prices at fast food outlets rose 0.4% and average prices at full service restaurants rose 0.1%, while the price index for food at employee sites and schools was 0.2% higher, and prices for other food away from home averaged 0.1% lower…

In the food at home categories, the price index for cereals and bakery products was 0.1% higher, as average bread prices rose 0.9%, the price index for rice,  pasta, and cornmeal rose 1.3%, the price index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies rose 0.6%, and the price index for fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts was 0.7% higher.…at the same time, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs food group was 1.3% higher, as the price index for beef and veal rose 2.7%, the price index for pork rose 0.6%, the price index for fish and seafood rose 1.5%, and the price index for eggs was also 1.5% higher…. in addition, the seasonally adjusted price index for dairy products was 0.8% higher, as average milk prices rose 1.6%, and the price index for cheese and related products was 1.2% higher….moreover, the fruits and vegetables price index was 1.8% higher, as the price index for fresh fruits rose 0.8%, the price index for fresh vegetables rose 3.9%, and the price index for dried beans, peas, and lentils was 1.1% higher.…meanwhile, the beverages price index was 1.1% higher, as the price index for carbonated drinks rose 0.8%, the price index for noncarbonated juices and drinks rose 1.2%, and the price index for coffee was 2.0% higher….lastly, the price index for the ‘other foods at home’ category was 0.4% lower, as the price index for salad dressing fell 2.8%, the price index for peanut butter fell 1.2%, and the price index for margarine fell 3.2%, the price index for sugar and and sweets fell 1.1%, and the price index for baby food and formula was 1.2% lower…

Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.4% in April, after rising by 0.2% in March, by 0.2% in February, by 0.3% in January, by 0.2% in December, by 0.2% over the 2 months ending in November, and by 0.3% in August, 0.3% in July, by 0.2% in June, by 0.1% in May, and by 0.2% last April, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was unchanged in April, while the more heavily weighted composite index for all services less energy services was 0.5% higher..

Among the goods components of the core price index, which will initially be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust April’s retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the price index for household furnishings and supplies was 0.5% lower, as the price index for living room, kitchen, and dining room furniture fell 0.4%, the price index for appliances fell 0.4%, the price index for floor coverings fell 2.2%, the price index for tools, hardware and supplies fell 1.1%, and the price index for household cleaning products was 0.7% lower….on the other hand, the apparel price index was 0.6% higher, on a 3.7% increase in the price index for men’s shirts and sweaters, a 2.2% increase in the price index for women's outerwear, an 0.8% increase in the price index for girls’ apparel, and a 1.4% increase in the price index for women’s footwear…. meanwhile, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was was 0.1% lower, as average prices for new cars were 0.2% lower, average prices for new trucks were 0.2% lower, the price index for used cars and trucks was unchanged, and the price index for tires was 0.2% lower…. at the same time, the price index for medical care commodities was 0.4% lower, as the price index for prescription drugs was unchanged, but the price index for nonprescription drugs was 1.6% lower, and the price index for medical equipment and supplies was 0.9% lower…however, the recreational commodities index was 0.1% higher, as the price index for televisions rose 1.2%, the price index for toys, games, hobbies and playground equipment rose 0.9%, the price index for sports vehicles including bicycles rose 0.5%, and the price index for sewing machines, fabric and supplies was 3.4% higher… in addition, the education and communication commodities index was 0.5% higher, on a 1.0% increase in the price index for smartphones, a 0.9% increase in the price index for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants, and a 5.0% increase in the price index computer software and accessories.…lastly, a separate price index just for alcoholic beverages was 0.3% higher, while the price index for ‘other goods’ was 0.5% higher on a 1.3% increase in the price index for cosmetics, perfume, bath, nail preparations and implements and a 1.9% increase in the price index for stationery, stationery supplies, gift wrap…

Within core services, the price index for shelter was 0.6% higher, as rents rose 0.5%, homeowner’s equivalent rent rose 0.5%, and prices for lodging away from home at hotels and motels were 2.8% higher, while the price index for household insurance was 0.1% higher, and the price index for water, sewers and trash collection services was 0.3% higher… however, the price index for medical care services was unchanged, as the price index for physicians’ services rose 0.6%, and the price index for eyeglasses and eye care rose 0.5%, but the price index for hospital services fell 0.3% and the price index for health insurance was 0.4% lower…meanwhile, the transportation services price index was 0.3% higher, as the price index for airline fares rose 2.8%, and the price index for motor vehicle maintenance and servicing was 0.5% higher….at the same time, the recreation services price index was 0.1% higher, as the price index for subscription and rental of video and video games rose 2.1%, and the price index for cable, satellite, and live streaming television service was 1.0% higher…on the other hand, the price index for education and communication services was 0.1% lower, as the price index for internet services and electronic information providers fell 1.4%, and the price index for telephone services was unchanged.…lastly, the index for other personal services was 1.2% higher, as the price index for funeral expenses rose 1.4%,  the price index for laundry and dry cleaning rose 1.0%, and the price index for tax return preparation and other accounting fees was 11.9% higher…

Retail Sales Rose 0.5% in April after Prior Months’ Sales Revised Higher

Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.5% in April, after retail sales for February and March were revised higher…the Advance Retail Sales Report for April (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $757.1 billion during the month, which was up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised March sales of $753.4 billion, and 4.8 percent (±0.5 percent) above the adjusted sales of April of last year…March’s seasonally adjusted sales were revised from $752.1 billion to $753.4 billion, while February’s sales were revised from $739.8 billion to $741.3 billion; as a result, the percent change from February to March was revised from up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent).…estimated unadjusted sales, extrapolated from surveys of a small sampling of retailers, indicated nominal dollar sales fell 0.7%, from $760,772 million in March to $755,713 million in April, while they were up 4.6% from the $722,319 million of sales in April a year ago….

We are again including below the table of monthly and yearly percentage changes in sales by business type, taken from the Census marts pdf….the first double column below gives us the seasonally adjusted percentage change in sales for each type of retail business type from March to April in the first column, and then the year over year percentage change for those businesses since last April in the 2nd column; the second pair of columns gives us the revision of last month’s March advance monthly estimates (now called “preliminary”) as revised in this report, likewise for each business type, with the February to March change under “Feb 2026 r (revised)” and the revised March 2025 to March 2026 percentage changes in the last column shown…for your reference, our copy of the table of last month’s advance March estimates, before the annual revision, is here….

To compute April’s real personal consumption of goods data for national accounts from this April retail sales report, the BEA will initially use the corresponding price changes from the April consumer price index, which we reviewed above…to estimate what they will find, we’ll first separate out the volatile sales of gasoline from the other totals…from the third line on the above table, we can see that April retail sales excluding the 2.8% price related increase in sales at gas stations were up by 0.3%….then, by subtracting the dollar values representing the 0.8% increase in grocery & beverage sales and the 1.2% increase in food services sales out from that total, we find that core retail sales were up by roughly 0.15% for the month…..since the April CPI report showed that the the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was was unchanged in April, we can thus figure that real retail sales excluding food and energy would have been up by about 0.15% from March….however, the actual adjustment in national accounts for each of the types of sales shown above will vary by the change in the related price index…for instance, while nominal sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers were down 0.4%, the April price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was was 0.1% lower, which would suggest that real unit sales at auto & parts dealers were on the order of 0.3% lower, because part of the sales decline was due to lower prices… on the other hand, while nominal sales at clothing stores were 1.5% lower in April, the apparel price index was 0.6% higher, which means that the clothing store sales decrease was despite higher prices, and that real sales of clothing likely fell about 2.1%…

In addition to figuring those core real retail sales, to make an estimate of the change in real sales, we’ll need to adjust food and energy retail sales for their price changes separately, just as the BEA will do…the April CPI report indicated that the food price index was 0.1% lower in April, as the price index for food purchased for use at home was 0.7% higher in April, while the price index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.2% higher…thus, while nominal sales at food and beverage stores were 0.8% higher, real sales of food and beverages would have been just 0.1% higher in light of 0.7% higher prices…meanwhile, the 0.6% nominal increase in sales at bars and restaurants, once adjusted for 0.2% higher prices, suggests that real sales at bars and restaurants were up by around 0.4% during the month…and while sales at gas stations were up 2.8%, there was also a 5.4% increase in the price index for gasoline, which would suggest that real sales of gasoline were down almost 2.5%, with a caveat that gasoline stations sell more than just gasoline, products which should not be adjusted with gasoline prices, so the actual decrease in real sales at gas stations was likely somewhat less…reweighing and averaging the real sales changes that we have thus estimated back together, and excluding food services, we can then estimate that the income and outlays report for April will show that real personal consumption of goods fell by almost 0.1% in April, after rising by 0.4% in March, and by 0.5% in February, but after being unchanged in January…at the same time, the 0.4% increase in real sales at bars and restaurants would boost March real personal consumption of services by about a quarter of 0.1%..…(note: we have little confidence in our PCE goods estimate because of the aberrant gasoline adjustment we used; without gasoline, our estimate would show that April's real PCE goods were 0.1% higher..)

Producer Price Index Rose 1.4% in April on Higher Prices for Energy, Trade and Transportation Services

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.4% in April, as the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 2.0% while the more heavily weighted price index for final demand for services was 1.2% higher….that April PPI increase, the largest since March 2022, followed a revised 0.7% increase in March, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 1.9%, while the price index for final demand for services was 0.2% higher, and followed a revised 0.6% increase in February, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods was 1.0% higher, and the price index for final demand for services was 0.4% higher, and followed revised 0.6% increase in January, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods was 0.1% lower, but the price index for final demand for services was 0.8% higher, and a revised 0.4% PPI increase in December, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods was 0.1% lower, while the price index for final demand for services was 0.6% higher, and a revised 0.4% PPI increase in November, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods was 0.8% higher, and the price index for final demand for services was 0.3% higher, and followed the unrevised report of a 0.1% PPI increase in October, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods fell 0.2%, but the more heavily weighted price index for final demand for services was 0.2% higher, and also followed a 0.6% PPI increase in September, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.6% and the price index for final demand for services was also 0.6% higher….those post-shutdown reports followed a revised 0.2% decrease in August, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.2%, but the more heavily weighted price index for final demand for services was 0.3% lower, and also followed a revised 0.8% increase in July, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.6% and the price index for final demand for services was was 0.9% higher, and followed a 0.2% PPI increase in June, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.3%, while the price index for final demand for services was 0.1% higher, and a 0.3% increase last May, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods was 0.1% higher, and the price index for final demand for services 0.4% higher….on an unadjusted basis, producer prices are now 6.0% higher than a year ago, while the core producer price index, which excludes food, energy and trade services, was 0.6% higher for the month, and is 4.4% higher than it was a year ago…

As noted, the producer price index for final demand for goods was 2.0% higher in April, after being 1.9% higher in March, 1.0% higher in February, 0.1% lower in January, 0.1% lower in December, 0.8% higher in November, 0.1% lower in October, 0.6% higher in September, 0.2% lower in August, 0.6% higher in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.1% higher last May, and 0.1% lower last April, and is now 7.4% higher than a year ago….the final demand goods price index was 2.0% higher in April because the price index for wholesale energy goods was 7.8% higher, after energy prices had been 10.1% higher in March, 2.1% higher in February, 1.8% lower in January, 1.5% lower in December, 3.4% higher in November, 2.2% lower in October, and 2.0% higher in September, and as the price index for wholesale foods was 0.3% lower, after wholesale foods had been had been 0.6% lower in March, 2.3% higher in February, 1.4% lower in January, and 0.2% lower in December, while the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (excluding food and energy) was 0.7% higher in April, after it had been 0.3% higher in March, 0.3% higher in February. 0.7% higher in January, and 0.4% higher in December….

Wholesale energy prices were 7.8% higher in April on a 15.6% increase in wholesale prices for gasoline, a 12.6% increase in wholesale prices for home heating oil and distillates, a 42.0% increase in wholesale prices for No. 2 diesel fuel, and a 1.9% increase in wholesale prices for home heating oil and distillates, while the final demand for food price index was 0.2% higher despite a 49.0% decrease the wholesale price index for eggs for fresh use, on a 13.5% increase the wholesale price index for fresh and dry vegetables, a 47% increase in the wholesale price index for finfish and shellfish, and a 1.9% increase in the wholesale price index for dairy products… among core wholesale goods, the wholesale price index for electronic components and accessories rose 8.1%, the wholesale price index for industrial chemicals rose 4.4%, the wholesale price index for iron and steel scrap rose 4.5%, the wholesale price index for household furniture rose 1.8%, and the wholesale price index for cigarettes was also 1.8% higher…

Meanwhile, the price index for final demand for services was 1.2% higher in April, after being 0.2% higher in March, 0.4% higher in February, 0.8% higher in January, 0.6% higher in December, 0.2% higher in November, 0.2% higher in October, 0.6% higher in September, 0.3% lower in August, 0.9% higher in July, 0.1% higher in June, 0.4% higher in May, and 0.3% lower last April, and is now 5.5% higher than a year ago….the price index for final demand for trade services rose 2.7%, the price index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services rose 5.0%, and the core index for final demand for services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.1% higher….

Among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for fuels and lubricants retailers rose 26.6%, margins for automotive parts and tire retailers were 1.7% higher, margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailers were 6.9% higher, margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailers were 2.5% higher, margins for chemicals and allied products wholesalers were 7.3% higher, and margins for machinery and vehicle wholesalers were 5.4% higher, but margins for TV, video, and photographic equipment and supplies retailers were 4.6% lower….among transportation and warehousing services, average margins for truck transportation of freight were 8.1% higher, margins for courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services rose 2.8%, and margins for air transportation of freight were 3.6% higher….among the components of the core final demand for services index, the price index for arrangement of vehicle rentals and lodging rose 6.4%, the price index for legal services rose 0.9%, the price index for consumer loans rose 1.6%, and the price index for arrangement of cruises and tours was 1.2% higher…

This report also showed the price index for intermediate processed goods was 2.7% higher in April, after being 2.8% higher in March, 1.5% higher in February, 0.1% higher in January, 0.1% higher in December, 0.6% higher in November, 0.1% lower in October, 0.2% higher in September, 0.4% higher in August, 0.7% higher in July, 0.1% lower in June, 0.2% higher in May, and 0.3% higher last April….the price index for intermediate energy goods rose 7.8% in April as refinery prices for gasoline rose 15.6%, refinery prices for No. 2 diesel fuel rose 12.6%, refinery prices for jet fuel rose 36.4%, refinery prices for residual fuels rose 24.3%, and producer prices for commercial natural gas were 2.2% higher….at the same time, the price index for intermediate processed foods and feeds rose 0.4%, as the producer price index for prepared animal feeds rose 1.8%, the producer price index for dairy products rose 1.9%, and the producer price index for fats and oils was 6.8% higher… in addition, the core price index for intermediate processed goods less food and energy goods was 1.5% higher, as the producer price index for plastic resins and materials rose 4.5%, the producer price index for synthetic rubber rose 12.1%, the producer price index for aluminum mill products rose 4.2%, the producer price index for steel mill products rose 3.8%, the producer price index for basic organic chemicals rose 5.2%, the producer price index for softwood lumber rose 12.3%, and the producer price index for intermediate electronic components and accessories was 8.1% higher….average prices for intermediate processed goods are now 9.4% higher than in April 2025, the 18th year over year increase in 38 months, but are still way off the 26.6% year over year increase of November 2021, which had been a 46 year high…

Meanwhile, the price index for intermediate unprocessed goods rose 4.1 in April, after rising 1.8% in March, rising 7.2% in February, 3.8% in January, 2.1% in December and 2.4% in November, after falling 1.3% in October, falling 0.5% in September, and falling 1.8% in August….that was as the April price index for crude energy goods rose 9.2%, as crude oil prices rose 11.3%, unprocessed natural gas prices rose 4.9%, and coal prices were 1.1% higher… meanwhile, the price index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs was 2.7% higher, as the producer price index for raw milk rose 18.5%, the producer price index for slaughter cattle rose 4.8%, the producer price index for slaughter turkeys rose 4.7%, and the producer price index for wheat was 1.9% higher….on the other hand, the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials was 1.0% lower, on a 2.8% decrease in the price index for nonferrous metal ores, a 7.8% decrease in the price index for aluminum base scrap, and a 1.3% decrease in the price index for copper base scrap….this raw materials price index is now 20.9% higher than a year ago, the 14th year over year increase in the past 39 months, which followed a run of twenty-seven consecutive year over year increases, which came after the annual change on this index had been negative from the beginning of 2019 through October of 2020…

Lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand was 1.1% lower in April, after being 0.1% lower in March, 0.4% higher in February, 0.7% higher in January, 0.6% higher in December, 0.2% higher in November, 0.4% higher in October, 0.3% higher in September, unchanged in August, 0.6% higher in July, 0.1% higher in June, and 0.1% higher last May.…the price index for intermediate trade services was 0.9% higher, as margins for chemicals and allied products wholesalers rose 7.3%, margins for building materials, paint, and hardware wholesalers rose 2.9%, and margins for intermediate automotive parts and tire retailers were 1.7% higher….at the same time, the price index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand was 3.7% higher, as the intermediate price index for truck transportation of freight rose 8.1%, the intermediate price index for air mail and package delivery services, excluding by USPS, rose 6.7%, the intermediate index for air transportation of freight rose 3.6%, and the intermediate index for arrangement of freight and cargo was 3.9% higher….meanwhile, the core price index for intermediate services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.5% higher, as the intermediate price index for television advertising time sales rose 4.7%, the intermediate price index for internet advertising time sales rose 8.9%, the intermediate price index for business loans rose 2.0%, and the intermediate price index for nonresidential property sales and leases was 0.9% higher….over the 12 months ended in March, the price index for services for intermediate demand was 4.4% higher than it was a year earlier, the sixty-sixth consecutive annual increase in this index, after it had briefly turned negative year over year at the onset of the pandemic, from April to August of 2020, even as the current annual increase is still much lower than the record 9.5% year over year increase that was indicated for July 2021…

Industrial Production Rose 0.7% in April after Production for four prior months was Revised Lower

Industrial production was 0.7% higher in April after production for February and January were revised lower…the Fed’s G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for April reported that industrial production was 0.7% higher in April after being a revised 0.3% lower in March and a revised 0.6% higher in February, which left our total output at a level 1.4% higher than the level of April a year ago….the industrial production index, with the benchmark now set for average 2017 production to equal to 100.0, came in at 102.5 in April, after the March index value was revised but unchanged from the 101.8 reported last month, and after the February index value was revised from 102.3 to 102.1, the January index was revised from 101.6 to 101.5, the December index also was revised from from 101.6 to 101.5, and the November index was revised from from 101.1 to 101.0.….the effect of those revisions was to revise the March change from -0.5% to -0.3%, and to revise the February change from +0.7% to +0.6%…

The manufacturing index, which accounts for more than 77% of the total IP index, rose 0.6% to 97.9 in April, led by a 3.7% increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts, after the March manufacturing index was left unrevised at 97.3, the February manufacturing index was revised from 97.4 to 97.3, the January manufacturing index was revised from 97.1 to 96.9, the December manufacturing index was revised from 96.5, to 96.3, and the November manufacturing index was unrevised at 96.5, which left the manufacturing index 1.3% above its level of a year ago….meanwhile, the mining index, which includes oil and gas well drilling, fell 0.1%, from 120.4 in March to 120.3 in April, after the March mining index was revised up from the originally reported 120.1, which left the mining index 0.2% higher than it was a year earlier…finally, the seasonally adjusted utility index, which typically fluctuates due to deviations from normal temperatures, rose by 1.9%, from 109.7 during out record warm March to 111.8 in our still warmer than normal April, after the March utility index was revised from 110.3 to 109.7, now down 1.4% from our colder than normal February….with the April increase, the utility index is now 2.7% above that of a year ago, partly due to a milder April last year than this year…

This report also includes April’s capacity utilization stats, which are expressed as a percentage of our plant and equipment that was in use during the month…seasonally adjusted capacity utilization for total industry rose to 76.1% in April from 75.7% in March with capacity utilization for March unrevised…capacity utilization of NAICS durable goods production facilities rose from an upwardly revised 74.2% in March to 75.1% in April, while capacity utilization for non-durables producers fell from an upwardly revised 76.4% to 76.3%…capacity utilization for the mining sector fell to 84.6% in April from 84.7% in March, which was previously reported as 84.5%, while utilities were operating at 71.1% of capacity during April, up from their 70.0% of capacity during March, which was reported at 70.3% of capacity a month ago…for more details on capacity utilization by type of manufacturer, see Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities, which shows the historical capacity utilization figures for a dozen types of durable goods manufacturers, 8 classifications of non-durable manufacturers, mining, utilities, and capacity utilization for a handful of other special categories..

Business Sales Rose 2.1% in March, Business Inventories Were 0.9% Higher

After the release of the April retail sales report, the Census Bureau also released the composite Manufacturing and Trade, Inventories and Sales report for March (pdf), which incorporates the revised March retail data from that April retail report and the earlier published March wholesale and factory data to give us a complete picture of the business impact on the economy for that month….According to the Census Bureau, total manufacturers’ and trade sales were estimated to be valued at a seasonally adjusted $2,059.2 billion in March, up 2.1 percent (±0.1 percent) from February’s revised sales, and up 7.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from March sales of last year…at the same time, total February sales were revised down from the originally reported $2,014.8 billion to $2,017.3 billion, and are now a 1.8% increase from January….manufacturer’s sales rose 1.4% to $633,940 million in March, while retail trade sales, which exclude restaurant & bar sales from the revised March retail sales reported earlier, rose 1.9% to $653,040 million, and wholesale sales rose 2.8% to $772,181 million..

Meanwhile, total manufacturer’s and trade inventories, a major component of GDP, were estimated to be valued at a seasonally adjusted $2,709.7 billion at the end of March, up 0.9 percent (±0.1 percent) from the end of February, and up 2.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from inventories of March a year earlier…the value of end of February inventories was revised from the $2,686.8 billion reported last month to $2,686.3 billion, which is still up 0.4% from January’s inventory valuation….seasonally adjusted inventories of manufacturers were estimated to be valued at $956,272 million, up 0.6% from February, and inventories of retailers were valued at $820,619 million, 0.6% more than those of February, while inventories of wholesalers were estimated to be valued at $932,843 million at the end of March, up 1.3% from February…

Last week, we estimated that there would be a 0.02 percentage point downward revision to 1st quarter GDP based on the inventory change that the full factory report showed, while we also figured that 1st quarter GDP was underestimated by around 0.02 percentage points based on what the wholesale inventories report showed……in the advance report on 4th quarter GDP of two weeks ago, retail inventories were estimated based on the sketchy Advance Report on Wholesale and Retail Inventories which was released the day before the GDP release…that report estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail inventories were valued at $823,483 million at the end of March, up 0.7% from a revised $817,768 million in February….that’s $5,214 million more than the $820,619 and $815,418 million for those two months that this report shows, which would mean that the quarterly change in 1st quarter retail inventories was overestimated at almost a $20.9 billion annual rate, or by an amount that would subtract about 0.35 percentage points from GDP, depending on how the inflation adjustments shake out…combined with our previous estimates on factory and wholesale inventories, then, this report would suggest that the growth rate of 1sr quarter GDP should be revised downwards by about 0.35 percentage points when the 2nd estimate is released next week….

Existing Home Sales were 0.2% Higher in April on Higher Prices

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that seasonally adjusted existing home sales rose by 0.2% from March to April, projecting that 4.02 million existing homes would sell over an entire year if the April home sales pace were extrapolated over that year, a pace that was unchanged from the annual sales rate projected during April of a year ago….March sales, now indicated at a 4.01 million annual rate, were revised from the 3.98 million rate originally reported….the NAR also reported that the median sales price for all existing-home types was at $417,700, an all-time high for the month of April, which they cite as “the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases“…..the NAR press release, which is titled “NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.2% Increase in April“, is in easy to read plain English, so if you’re interested in the details on housing inventories, cash sales, distressed sales, first time home buyers, etc, or if you’re interested in a regional breakdown, you can easily find all that in that press release…as sales of existing properties do not add to our national output, neither these home sales nor the prices for which these homes sell are included in GDP, except insofar as real estate, local government and banking services are rendered during the selling process…

Since this report is entirely seasonally adjusted and at a not very informative annual rate, we usually look at the raw data overview (pdf) to see what actually happened during the month…this unadjusted data indicates that roughly 354,000 homes sold in April, up 7.6% from the 329,000 homes that sold in March, and up by 1.4% from the 349,000 homes that sold in April of last year, so we can see the effect of the usual seasonal adjustment on reported sales, as home sales normally increase as spring progresses, and have been lowered accordingly by the seasonal adjustment….also note that same pdf indicates that the median home selling price for all housing types rose by 2.1%, from a revised $409,100 in March to $417,700 in April, and was up by 0.9% from the $414,000 median sales price of last April, with year over year home prices rising by 4.8% in the Northeast, by 3.6% in the Midwest, and by 0.4% in the South but falling by 1.4% in the West.…

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular Sunday morning news links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most of which are chosen from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)