February’s consumer and producer prices, January’s job openings

Major monthly reports released over the past week included the February Consumer Price Index, the February Producer Price Index and the February Import-Export Price Index, as well as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for January, all from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)…

Consumer Prices Rose 0.2% in February on Higher Prices for Rent, Utilities, and Used Vehicles

The consumer price index was 0.2% higher in February, as higher prices for rent, utilities, clothing, used vehicles, appliances, household operations and insurance, physicians' services, nursing homes, internet and phone service, eating out, and recreational services were partly offset by lower prices for gasoline, airline fares, sporting goods including bicycles, TVs, and smartphones….the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the weighted average of seasonally adjusted prices for consumer goods and services was 0.2% higher in February, after being 0.5% higher in January, 0.4% higher in December, 0.3% higher in November, 0.2% higher in October, 0.2% higher in September. 0.2% higher in August, 0.2% higher in July, unchanged in June, unchanged in May, 0.3% higher in April, 0.3% higher last March, and 0.4% higher in February of last year….

The unadjusted CPI-U index, which was originally set to have prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 317.671 in January to 319.082 in February, which left it statistically 2.82155% higher than the index reading of 310.326 from February of last year, which is reported as a 2.8% year over year increase, less than the 3.0% year over year increase that was reported for January, with that widely cited year over year change reflecting the effect of last February’s +0.4% increase dropping out of the comparison and being replaced by the current month’s +0.2%….with overall food prices and energy prices in line with the overall increase, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude both food and energy, were also up by 0.2% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 323.842 to 325.252, which left the core index 3.11744% ahead of its year ago reading of 315.419, which is reported as a 3.1% year over year increase, less than the 3.3% year over year core price increase that was reported for January, and well below the 6.6% annual increase reported for September 2022, which had been the largest annual increase in core prices in forty years..

The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index was 0.2% higher in February, after being 1.1% higher in January, 2.4% higher in December, 0.1% higher in November, 0.2% lower in October, 1.0% lower in September, 1.0% lower in August, and 0.4% lower in July, and is now 1.0% higher than in February of a year ago…the price index for energy commodities was 0.9% lower in February, while the price index for energy services was 1.4% higher, after the energy services price index had risen by 0.3% in January….the energy commodities index was down 0.9% on a 1.0% decrease in the price index for gasoline and despite an 0.8% increase in the price index for fuel oil, while prices for “other energy commodities”, including propane, kerosene, and firewood, averaged 0.7% lower…within energy services, the price index for utility gas service was 2.5% higher in February, after being 1.8% higher in January, and is now 6.0% higher than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index was 1.0% higher in February, after being unchanged in January…. energy commodities are still averaging 3.2% below their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 3.1% lower than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is now up 3.3% from last February, as electricity prices are averaging 2.5% higher than a year ago…

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted food price index was 0.2% higher in February, after being 0.4% higher in January, 0.3% higher in December, 0.3% higher in November, 0.2% higher in October, 0.3% higher in September, 0.2% higher in August, and 0.1% higher in July, as the price index for food purchased for use at home was unchanged in February, after being 0.5% higher in January, 0.3% higher in December and 0.4% higher in November, while the price index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.4% higher, as average prices at fast food outlets rose 0.3% and average prices at full service restaurants rose 0.4%, while the price index for food at employee sites and schools rose 0.5%, and prices of other food away from home averaged 0.8% higher…

In the food at home categories, the price index for cereals and bakery products was 0.4% higher, as bread prices rose 0.4%, the price index for breakfast cereal rose 2.1%, the price index for rice rose 0.7%, the price index for frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts, turnovers rose 1.0%, and the price index for fresh cakes and cupcakes was 0.7% higher.…at the same time, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs food group was 1.6% higher, as the price index for beef and veal rose 2.4%, the price index for fish and seafood rose 0.7%, and egg prices were 10.4% higher….on the other hand, the seasonally adjusted price index for dairy products was 1.0% lower, even though average milk prices rose 0.5%, because the price index for ice cream and related products fell 2.2% and the price index for cheese and related products was 1.2% lower….in addition, the fruits and vegetables price index was 0.5% lower, as the price index for fresh vegetables fell 0.5%, the price index for fresh fruits fell 0.8% and the price index for canned fruits fell 2,2%.…the beverages price index was also 0.5% lower, as the price index for carbonated drinks fell 0.6% and the price index for noncarbonated juices and drinks fell 1.2%, while the price index for coffee was 1.8% higher….lastly, the price index for the ‘other foods at home’ category was also 0.5% lower, as the price index for peanut butter fell 2.7%, the price index for soups fell 0.9%, the price index for snacks fell 1.0%, and the price index for frozen and freeze dried prepared foods was 1.7% lower…

Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.2% in February, after rising by 0.4% in January. by 0.2% in December, by 0.3% in August, September, October and November, and by 0.2% in July, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 0.2% higher in February, while the more heavily weighted composite index for all services less energy services was 0.3% higher..

Among the goods components of the core price index, which will initially be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust February’s retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the price index for household furnishings and supplies was 0.2% higher, as the price index for dishes and flatware rose 2.8%, the price index for window and floor coverings and other linens rose 1.4%. the price index for major appliances rose 1.4%, and the index for outdoor equipment and supplies was 1.2% higher….at the same time, the apparel price index was 0.6% higher on a 5.5% increase in the price index for men’s suits, sport coats, and outerwear, a 2.5% increase in the price index for women’s dresses, a 3.6% increase in the price index for girls’ apparel, a 1.5% increase in the price index for men’s footwear, and a 3.6% increase in the price index for jewelry and watches….in addition, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was was 0.2% higher, as average prices for new cars slipped 0.1% but the price index for used cars and trucks rose 0.9% and the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids was 0.5% higher…at the same time, the price index for medical care commodities was 0.1% higher in February as the price index for nonprescription drugs rose 0.6%, the price index for prescription drugs was unchanged, and the price index for medical equipment and supplies was 0.4% lower… on the other hand, the recreational commodities index 0.7% lower, as the price index for TVs fell 1.9%, as the price index for pets, pet supplies, and accessories fell 0.7%, the price index for sports vehicles including bicycles fell 4.2%, the price index for recreational books fell 1.2%, and the price index for toys, games, hobbies and playground equipment was 0.5% lower… however, the education and communication commodities index was 0.1% higher, on a 0.6% increase in the price index for college textbooks. a 0.7% increase in the price index for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants, and a 3.3% increase in the price index for computer software and accessories.…lastly, a separate price index just for alcoholic beverages was 0.1% higher, while the price index for ‘other goods’ was 0.8% higher. on a 1.6% increase in the price index for hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products and an 0.8% increase in the price index for cigarettes…

Within core services, the price index for shelter was 0.3% higher, as rents rose 0.3%, homeowner’s equivalent rent rose 0.3%, and prices for lodging away from home at hotels and motels were 0.2% higher, while the price index for household insurance was 0.8% higher, and the price index for water, sewers and trash collection services was 1.0% higher, and the price index for moving, storage, and freight expense was 0.3% higher… at the same time, the price index for medical care services was 0.3% higher, as the price index for physicians' services rose 0.4%, price index for eyeglasses and eye care was 0.6% higher, and the price index for nursing homes and adult day services was 1.0% higher….however, the transportation services price index was 0.8% lower, as the price index for car and truck rental fell 1.3%, the price index for motor vehicle body work fell 1.8%, and the price index for airline fares fell 4.0%….on the other hand, the recreation services price index was 0.8% higher, as the price index for purchase, subscription, and rental of videos rose 2.1%, the price index for admission to sporting events rose 7.3%, the price index for veterinarian services rose 2.3%, and the price index for photographers and photo processing service was 1.3% higher….in addition, the price index for education and communication services was 0.3% higher, as the price index for day care and preschool rose 0.5%, the price index for internet services and electronic information providers rose 1.1%, and the price index for residential telephone services was 1.6% higher…lastly, the index for other personal services was 0.9% higher, the price index for funeral expenses rose 0.7% and the price index for financial services was 1.9% higher..

Producer Prices ‘Unchanged’ in February as Lower Energy and Trade Services Offset Higher Food and Core Indices

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was unchanged in February, as the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.3% while the price index for final demand for services was 0.2% lower… that unchanged February PPI reading followed an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in January, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.6% and the price index for final demand for services was also 0.6% higher, a 0.5% PPI increase in December, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.5% and the price index for final demand for services was also 0.5% higher, a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in November, when final demand prices for wholesale goods rose 0.6% and the price index for final demand for services was 0.1% lower, an upwardly revised 0.3% PPI increase in October, when the final demand price index for wholesale goods rose 0.1% and the price index for final demand for services was 0.5% higher, an unrevised 0.3% increase in September, when the price index for finished wholesale goods was 0.2% lower, but the price index for final demand for services was 0.5% higher, and an unrevised 0.3% increase in August, when prices for finished wholesale goods averaged unchanged, while the price index for final demand for services was 0.5% higher….on an unadjusted basis, producer prices are now 3.2% higher than a year ago, while the core producer price index, which excludes food, energy and trade services, was 0.2% higher for the month, and is 3.3% higher than it was a year ago…

As noted, the producer price index for final demand for goods was 0.3% higher in February, after being 0.6% higher in January, 0.5% higher in December, 0.6% higher in November, 0.1% higher in October, 0.2% lower in September, unchanged in August, 0.4% higher in July, 0.2% lower in June, and 0.6% lower in May, and is now 1.7% higher than a year ago….the final demand goods price index was 0.3% higher in February even though the price index for wholesale energy goods was 1.2% lower, after it had been 1.8% higher in January, up 2.1% in December, up 0.4% in November, and up 0.3% in October, because the price index for wholesale foods was 1.7% higher, after it had been up 1.0% in January, up 0.3% in December, up 2.1% in November, and down 0.6% in October, while the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (excluding food and energy) was 0.4% higher February after being 0.2% higher in January and 0.2% higher in December….

Wholesale energy prices were down 1.2% in February on a 4.7% decrease in wholesale prices for gasoline, a 3.9% decrease in wholesale prices for No. 2 diesel fuel, and a 9.8% decrease in wholesale prices for home heating oil and distillates, while the final demand for food price index was 1.7% higher on a 28.1% increase in the wholesale price index for eggs for fresh use, a 6.0% increase in the wholesale price index for fresh and dry vegetables, and a 4.0% increase in the wholesale price index for fresh fruits and melons…. among core wholesale goods, the wholesale price index for​ iron and steel scrap rose 8.6%, the wholesale price index for printing machinery and equipment rose 1.1%, and the wholesale price index for footwear was 1.1% higher…

Meanwhile, the price index for final demand for services was 0.2% lower in February, after being 0.6% higher in January, 0.5% higher in December, 0.1% lower in November, 0.4% higher in October, 0.5% higher in September, 0.5% higher in August, but 0.2% lower in July, and is still 3.9% higher than a year ago…the price index for final demand for trade services fell 1.0%, the price index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services was unchanged, and the core index for final demand for services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.2% higher….

Among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for automobile retailers fell 3.8%, margins for furniture retailers fell 4.3%, margins for major household appliances retailers were 6.0% lower, and margins for apparel wholesaler were 2.7% lower….among transportation and warehousing services, average margins for rail transportation of freight and mail were unchanged, and margins for air transportation of freight were 1.2% lower….among the components of the core final demand for services index, the price index for hospital inpatient care rose 1.0%, the price index for arrangement of cruises and tours rose 1.4%, the price index bundled wired telecommunications access services rose 1.2%, and the price index for application software publishing was 1.0% higher…

This report also showed the price index for intermediate processed goods was 0.5% higher in February, after being 1.0% higher in January, 0.2% higher in December, 0.1% higher in November, 0.3% higher in October, but 0.8% lower in September, 0.1% lower in August, and 0.5% higher ​l​ast July….the price index for intermediate energy goods rose 0.5% in February as refinery prices for jet fuel rose 4.0%, refinery prices for residual fuels rose 4.9%, the producer price index for commercial electric power rose 3.4%, producer prices commercial natural gas rose 2.6%, and producer prices for natural gas to electric utilities rose 4.6%….at the same time, the price index for intermediate processed foods and feeds rose 2.0%, as the producer price index for meats rose 2.8%, the producer price index for processed fruits and vegetables rose 0.7%, and the producer price index for prepared animal feeds was 0.8% higher….meanwhile, the core price index for intermediate processed goods less food and energy goods was 0.3% higher, as the producer price index for primary nonferrous metals rose 6.2%, the producer price index for secondary nonferrous metals rose 2.5%, the producer price index for steel mill products rose 2.7%, the producer price index for nitrogenates rose 4.4%, and the producer price index for plywood was 2.1% higher….average prices for intermediate processed goods were 0.3% higher than in February 2024, just the 4th year over year increase in 24 months, and are thus still way down from their 26.6% year over year increase of November 2021, which had been a 46 year high…

Meanwhile, the price index for intermediate unprocessed goods rose 1.3% in February, after rising 5.8% in January​ and 2.9% in December, after being unchanged in November, after rising 2.3% in October, after falling 1.9% in September and falling 3.2% in August….that was as the February price index for crude energy goods fell 3.1%, as crude oil prices fell 2.4% and unprocessed natural gas prices fell 5.9%, and coal prices were 0.2% lower…at the same time, the price index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs was 5.1% higher, on a 53.6% increase in producer prices for chicken eggs, a 5.8% increase in producer prices for slaughter turkeys, a 6.0% increase in producer prices for raw milk, and a 4.4% increase in producer prices for wheat….in addition, the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials was 2.2% higher, on an 8.6% increase in the price index for iron and steel scrap, a 2.9% increase index for copper base scrap, and a 2.6% increase in the price index for nonferrous metal ores….this raw materials price index is now 10.5% higher than a year ago, the 5th year over year increase in the past 25 months, which followed twenty-seven consecutive year over year increases, which came after the annual change on this index had been negative from the beginning of 2019 through October of 2020…

Lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand was 0.2% lower in February, after being 0.2% lower in January, 0.5% higher in December, 0.2% lower in November, 0.1% higher in October, 0.2% higher in September, 0.1% higher in August, 0.3% higher in July, and 0.5% higher last June.…the price index for intermediate trade services was unchanged, as margins for chemicals and allied products wholesalers fell 2.2%, margins for intermediate automotive parts, including tires, retailers fell 1.6%, and margins for intermediate hardware, building material, and supplies retailers fell 1.3%, while margins for building materials, paint, and hardware wholesalers rose 2.0% and margins for metals, minerals, and ores wholesalers were 1.0% higher….at the same time, the price index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand was 0.1% higher, as the intermediate price index for water transportation of freight rose 1.9%, and the intermediate index for warehousing, storage, and related services was 1.3% higher….on the other hand, the core price index for intermediate services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.4% lower, as the intermediate price index for business loans (partial) fell 2.1%, the intermediate price index for television advertising time sales service fell 7.6%, and the intermediate price index for passenger car rental was 4.0% lower…over the 12 months ended in February, price index for services for intermediate demand was 1.9% higher than it was a year ago, the fifty-second consecutive annual increase in this index, after it had briefly turned negative year over year at the onset of the pandemic, from April to August of 2020, while the current annual increase is still much lower than the record 9.5% year over year increase that was indicated for July 2021…

Job Openings and Job Quitting Rose in January, Layoffs were Down a Bit, Hiring was Little Changed

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for January from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that seasonally adjusted job openings increased by 232,000, from 7,508,000 in December to 7,740,000 in January, after December’s job openings were revised 92,000 lower, from 7,600,000 to 7,508,000, with that revision incorporating an annual revision of 2024’s job openings and labor turnover data, tables for which are included in the release…January’s jobs openings were still 8.6% lower than the revised 8,468,000 job openings reported for January a year ago, as the job opening ratio expressed as a percentage of the employed rose to 4.6​% in January from the 4.5% now indicated for December, but was down from the 5.1% rate of January a year ago….a 143,000 increase to 662,000 in job openings in retail was the largest increase, while job openings in ​the professional and business services ​sector decreased by 122,000 to 1,242,000 (details on job openings by industry and region can be viewed in Table 1)…like most BLS releases,​ the press release for this report is easy to understand and also refers us to the associated table for the data cited, which are linked at the end of the release…

The JOLTS release also reports on labor turnover, which consists of hires and job separations, which in turn is further divided into layoffs and discharges, those who quit, and ‘other separations’, which includes retirements and deaths….in January, seasonally adjusted new hires totaled 5,393,000, up by 19,000 from the revised 5,374,000 who were hired or rehired in December, as the hiring rate as a percentage of all employed was unchanged at 3.4% in January, while it was down from the 3.5% hiring rate in January a year earlier (details of hiring by sector since September are in table 2)….meanwhile, total separations rose by 170,000, from 5,082,000 in December to 5,252,000 in January, as the separations rate as a percentage of the employed rose from 3.2% in December to 3.3% in January, but was still down from the separations rate of 3.5% in January of a year ago (see table 3)…subtracting the 5,252,000 total separations from the total hires of 5,393,000 would imply an increase of 141,000 jobs in January, more than the revised payroll job increase of 125,000 for January reported in the February establishment survey last week, but still within the expected +/-115,000 margin of error for these reports….

Breaking down the seasonally adjusted job separations, the BLS finds that 3,266,000 of us voluntarily quit our jobs in January, up by 171,000 from the revised 3.095,000 who quit their jobs in December, while the quits rate, widely watched as an indicator of worker confidence, rose from 1​.9% to 2.1% of total employment, same as the 2.1% quits rate of a year earlier (see details in table 4)….in addition to those who quit, another 1,635,000 were either laid off, fired or otherwise discharged in January, down by 34,000 from the 1,669,000 who were discharged in December, as the discharges rate slipped from 1.1% to 1.0% of all those who were employed during the month, which was also down from the discharges rate of 1.1% a year earlier….meanwhile, ‘other separations’, which includes retirements and deaths, were at 350,000 in January, up by 32,000 from 318,000 in December, for an ‘other separations rate’ of 0.2%, the same as in December and as in January of last year….both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted details by industry and by region on hires and job separations, and on job quits and discharges can be accessed using the links to tables at the bottom of the press release…

 

 

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning news links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most of which are picked from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)