September Consumer Price Index and Existing Home Sales, et al

It appears that the only widely watched report scheduled for last week was the Existing Home Sales Report for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), as all the usual end of the month US agency reports are scheduled for next week (and will inevitably be delayed because the data gathering for them has been suspended since October 1st)….however, since the September Consumer Price Index was needed to compute the annual cost of living increase for Social Security, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did bring in a skeleton crew to get that report published, using data which had already been collected by Census Bureau field agents during September, so we also have that….In addition, the week also saw another regional Fed manufacturing survey for October: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, covering western Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico, reported its broadest composite index rose to +6 in October, up from +4 in September, and up from +1 in August, indicating that a larger plurality of that region’s manufacturers continued to report improving conditions this month…

Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% in September on Higher Prices for Gasoline, Food, Shelter, Clothing, and Airfares

The consumer price index was 0.3% higher in September, as higher prices for gasoline, housing and home insurance, groceries, apparel, airline fares, health care, new vehicles and vehicle servicing, lodging away from home, admissions to sporting events, and furniture and appliances were only partly offset by lower prices for utilities, used vehicles, information technology commodities including smartphones, truck leasing, and personal financial services….the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that their weighted average of seasonally adjusted prices for consumer goods and services was 0.3% higher in September, after being 0.4% higher in August, 0.2% higher in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.1% higher in May, 0.2% higher in April, 0.1% lower in March, 0.2% higher in February, 0.5% higher in January, 0.4% higher in December, 0.3% higher in November, 0.2% higher in October, and 0.2% higher in September of last year….

The unadjusted CPI-U index, which was originally set to have prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 323.976 in August to 324.800 in September, which left it statistically 3.01268% higher than the index reading of 315.301 from September of last year, which is reported as a 3.0% year over year increase, higher than the 2.9% year over year increase that was reported for August, with that widely cited year over year change reflecting the effect of last September’s 0.2% increase dropping out of the comparison and being replaced by the current month’s +0.3%, and not telling us anything more about inflation beyond that….with much higher prices for gasoline underpinning this monthly CPI increase, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude both food and energy, were up by 0.2% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 329.970 to 330.804, which left the core index 3.0192% ahead of its year ago reading of 321.109, which is reported as a 3.0% year over year increase, less than the 3.1% year over year core price increase that was reported for August, and well below the 6.6% annual increase reported for September 2022, which had been the largest annual increase in core prices in forty years…

The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index was 1.5% higher in September, after being 0.7% higher in August, 1.1% lower in July, 0.9% higher in June, 1.0% lower in May, 0.7% higher in April, 2.4% lower in March, 0.2% higher in February, 1.1% higher in January, 2.4% higher in December, 0.1% higher in November, 0.2% lower last October, 1.0% lower last September, and 1.0% lower last August, and thus is 2.8% higher than in September of a year ago….the price index for energy commodities was 3.8% higher in September, while the price index for energy services was 0.7% lower, after the energy services price index had fallen by 0.2% in August….the energy commodities index was up 3.8% on a 4.1% increase in the price index for gasoline, and a 0.6% increase the price index for fuel oil, while prices for “other energy commodities”, including propane, kerosene, and firewood, averaged 1.0% lower…within energy services, the price index for utility gas service was 1.2% lower in September, after being 1.6% lower in August, but is still 11.7% higher than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index was 0.5% lower in September, after being 0.2% higher in August…. energy commodities are still averaging 0.4% below their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 0.5% lower than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is still up 6.4% from last September, as electricity prices are still averaging 5.1% higher than a year ago...

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted food price index was 0.2% higher in September, after being 0.5% higher in August, unchanged in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.3% higher in May, 0.1% lower in April, 0.4% higher in March, 0.2% higher in February, 0.4% higher in January, 0.3% higher in December, 0.3% higher last November, 0.2% higher last October, and 0.3% higher last September, as the price index for food purchased for use at home was 0.3% higher in September, after being 0.6% higher in August, 0.1% lower in July, 0.3% higher in June, 0.3% higher in May. 0.4% lower in April, 0.5% higher in March, unchanged in February, and 0.5% higher in January, while the price index for food bought away from home was 0.1% higher, as average prices at fast food outlets rose 0.2% but average prices at full service restaurants was unchanged, while the price index for food at employee sites and schools was 0.2% lower, and prices for other food away from home averaged 0.4% higher…

In the food at home categories, the price index for cereals and bakery products was 0.7% higher, as average bread prices rose 0.3%, as the price index for flour and prepared flour mixes rose 0.4%, the price index for breakfast cereal 1.0%, the price index for fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts rose 5.7%, the price index for crackers, bread, and cracker products rose 1.6%, and the price index for fresh cakes and cupcakes was 1.8% higher.…at the same time, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs food group was 0.3% higher, even though egg prices fell 4.7%, as beef prices rose 1.2%, pork prices rose 0.5%, the price index for lunchmeats rose 4.2%, and the price index for uncooked poultry including turkey but not chicken rose 1.4%….on the other hand, the seasonally adjusted price index for dairy products was 0.7% lower, as average milk prices fell 0.2%, the price index for cheese and related products fell 0.7% and the price index for ice cream and related products was 0.9% lower….meanwhile, the fruits and vegetables price index was unchanged, as the price index for fresh fruits fell 0.5%, while the price index for rosin fruits and vegetables rose 1.0%, and the price index canned fruits and vegetables was 0.6% higher.…at the same time, the beverages price index was 0.7% higher, as the price index for carbonated drinks rose 1.4% and the price index for noncarbonated juices and drinks rose 1.7%, while the price index for coffee was 0.1% lower….lastly, the price index for the ‘other foods at home’ category was 0.5% higher, as the price index for sugar and sweets rose 0.4%, the price index for salad dressing rose 1.8%, the price index for peanut butter rose 2.1%, the price index for frozen and freeze dried prepared foods rose 1.2%, the price index for baby food and formula rose 1.3%, the price index for snacks rose 1.2%, and the price index for salt and other seasonings and spices was 1.0% higher…

Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.2% in September, after rising by 0.3% in August, by 0.3% in July, by 0.2% in June, by 0.1% in May, by 0.2% in April, by 0.1% in March, by 0.2% in February, by 0.4% in January. by 0.2% in December, and by 0.3% last August, September, October and November, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 0.3% higher in September, while the more heavily weighted composite index for all services less energy services was also 0.2% higher..

Among the goods components of the core price index, which will initially be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust September's retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the price index for household furnishings and supplies was 0.2% higher, as the price index for floor coverings rose 1.0%, the price index for furniture and bedding rose 0.9%, the price index for appliances rose 0.8%, the price index for household paper products rose 1.0%, the price index for dishes and flatware rose 2.8%, and the price index for miscellaneous household products was 1.1% higher….at the same time, the apparel price index was 0.7% higher on a 1.9% increase in the price index for men’s pants and shorts, a 2.6% increase in the price index for boys' apparel, a 1.4% increase in the price index for girls' apparel, a 1.5% increase in the price index for women' footwear, and a 3.2% increase in the price index for watches ….meanwhile, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was was unchanged, as average prices for new vehicles rose 0.2%, the price index for used cars and trucks fell 0.4%, the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids fell 1.4%, while the price index for vehicle parts and equipment other than tires was 0.7% higher…on the other hand, the price index for medical care commodities was 0.1% lower even as as the price index for prescription drugs rose 0.3%, as the price index for medical equipment and supplies was 0.6% lower…however, the recreational commodities index was 0.4% higher, as the price index for pets, pet supplies, and accessories rose 1.0%, the price index for sports vehicles including bicycles rose 1.5%, the price index for music instruments and accessories rose 1.1%, and the price index for sewing machines, fabric and supplies was 1.0% higher… on the other hand, the education and communication commodities index was 0.8% lower, on a 1.9% decrease in the price index for computer software and accessories, a 1.4% decrease in the price index for telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items including smartphones, and a 0.7% decrease in the price index for educational books and supplies.…lastly, a separate price index just for alcoholic beverages was unchanged, while the price index for ‘other goods’ was 0.8% higher, on a 1.0% increase in the price index for hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products and a 1.4% increase in the price index for miscellaneous personal goods…

Within core services, the price index for shelter was 0.2% higher, as rents rose 0.2%, homeowner’s equivalent rent rose 0.1%, and prices for lodging away from home at hotels and motels were 1.3% higher, while the price index for household insurance was 1.2% higher, and the price index for water, sewers and trash collection services was 0.1% higher, while the price index for moving, storage, and freight expense was 1.3% higher….at the same time, the price index for medical care services was 0.3 higher, as the price index for eyeglasses and eye care rose 0.3%, price index for hospital services rose 0.3%, and the price index for care of invalids and elderly at home was 7.0% higher….in addition, the transportation services price index was 0.3% higher, as the price index for airline fares rose 2.7%, the price index for motor vehicle vehicle maintenance and servicing rose 0.8%, and the price index for parking and other fees was 2.0% higher….in addition, the recreation services price index was 0.4% higher, as the price index for video discs and other media rose 2.2%, the price index for admissions to to sporting events rose 3.7%, and the price index for veterinarian services was 1.4% higher…meanwhile, the price index for education and communication services was 0.1% higher, as the price index for day care and preschool rose 1.7%, and the price index for elementary and high school tuition and fees was 0.5% higher.…lastly, the index for other personal services was 0.1% higher, as the price index for haircuts and other personal care services rose 0.9% and the price index for apparel services other than laundry and dry cleaning was 0.8% higher..​.

Existing Home Sales Rose 1.5% in September

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that their seasonally adjusted tally of existing home sales rose 1.5% from August to September, the 3rd increase in 7 months, projecting that 6.06 million homes would sell over an entire year if the September home sales pace were extrapolated over that year, a pace that was also 4.1% above the 3.90 million annual sales rate projected in September of a year ago, which had been a fourteen year low…August sales, at a 4.00 million annual rate, were revised but were unchanged from the rate reported a month ago …the NAR also reported that the median sales price for all existing-home types was $415,200 in September, 2.1% higher than in September a year earlier, which they say is “the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases“….the NAR press release, which is titled “NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September“, is in easy to read plain English, so if you’re interested in the details on housing inventories, cash sales, distressed sales, first time home buyers, et al., you can easily find them in that press release…since sales of existing properties do not add to our national output, neither these home sales nor the prices for which these homes sell for are included in GDP, except insofar as real estate, local government and banking services are rendered during the selling process…

Since this report is entirely seasonally adjusted and at a not very informative annual rate, we like to look at the raw data overview (pdf), which gives us a close approximation to the actual number of homes that sold each month…that unadjusted data indicates that roughly 357,000 homes sold in September, down 5.1% from the 376,000 homes that sold in August, but 8.2% more homes than the 330,000 homes that sold in September of last year, so we can see that the seasonal adjustment gave a modest boost to the headline monthly change published in the Realtor’s press release….that same pdf indicates that the median home selling price for all housing types fell for a fourth consecutive month, from a revised $422,400 in August to $415,200 in September, while the average home sales price, which had first topped $500,000 during 2022, is no longer published…regional median home sales prices range from a low of $320,800 in the Midwest, to a high of $619,100 in the West, with prices in the Northeast falling 6.3% in the current report, from $534,100 in August to $500,300 in September… for both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted graphs and additional commentary on this report, see the following two posts from Bill McBride at Calculated Risk: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September and Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September, which serves as a link to his in depth newsletter coverage of this report..​.

 

 

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning news links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most of which are chosen from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)